MarketNsight, a leading real estate data and analysis provider, reports that year-to-year pending sales turned positive the last week of October for the first time since the second week of June 2022.
“Don’t get too excited – the last week of October 2023 is being compared to a very bad October 2022,” said John Hunt, Principal and Chief Analyst at MarketNsight. “Still, the significance of finally going positive year-to-year after a year and a half cannot be dismissed.”
Current pending sales have been improving consistently over the past year, even if the comparison to 2019 is less than stellar.
Hunt comments, “Current pending sales look worse against our benchmark 2019, and we are testing the lows from the fourth week of November 2022 when pending sales were down 33% over 2019.” In the third week of October 2023, the pending sales were at -32% compared to 2019.
Weekly 30-year Fixed rates have been above 7% for a record 11 consecutive weeks. Interest rates dropped slightly from 7.79% to 7.76% in the last week of October.
Total inventory through the fourth week of October of this year was up 10% over September, and the Months of Supply (MOS) increased from 2.2 in September to 2.5 in October. Inventory is still 40% of pre-pandemic levels, however, and Atlanta needs approximately 46,000 additional units to revert to equilibrium – which is a MOS of six.
Hunt explains, “Our forecast for peak MOS is up slightly, as we think it could reach 2.7 to 3.0 in November under normal seasonal conditions. This will still be far below the market equilibrium of 6 months of supply. Inventory and MOS will start to drop after November – just as they always do during the winter months.”
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