St. Bourke, an Atlanta-based asset management and property development company, reveals a big picture snapshot of the Atlanta housing market in 1Q2022. Home prices continue to rise, homebuyers continue to push out toward the suburbs and exurbs and inventory continues to decline.
“The upward trajectory of Atlanta’s economic recovery flattened during Q1 as the market began to feel more significant impacts from issues around pricing and affordability, inflation and housing inventory,” St. Bourke President Ben Simpson said.
Atlanta Housing Market Median Home Price
The median home price in metro Atlanta is up 25.4% YoY, which is much higher than the 15.7% growth seen nationally. Juxtapose increased prices with the fact that Atlanta wages only increased by +3.5% over that same time.
Homes at $400,000+
The market share of homes at $400,000+ has grown from 22.6% to 40.6%, and new home closings above $400,000 have grown from 53.3% to 72% over the last year.
Top 10 Best-Selling Communities
In a race for attainable homes, homebuyers have pushed out into the exurbs. Currently nine of the top 10 best-selling communities in Atlanta are located more than 30 miles from downtown, and of these, eight are concentrated in the Northeast corner of the Metro area (Gwinnett, Hall, Barrow, Forsyth and Jackson counties; even Dawson County made the list).
At the end of Q1, all 10 of the top-performing communities had less than a 1-year supply of finished lots, and it is extremely likely that six of these communities will close out by the end of the year. Over the last 12 months, an astonishing 540 communities in Atlanta have closed out.
Lot Supply & Home Inventory
Lot supply and home inventory continued to drop during Q1 with just a 1-month supply of available homes at the end of March. Single-family detached (SFD) inventory dropped – 5.7% in Q1 and is down -13.4% YoY; single-family attached (SFA) inventory dropped by -3.6% in Q1 and is down -16.7% YoY. Of special interest, SFA lot delivery increased by more than +8% and inventory still fell by nearly -17%, demonstrating strong demand for SFA product.
With SFA inventory a solid option as a lower-cost path to homeownership, starts continue to increase. As of Q1, SFA starts were up +14.2% YoY, SFA closings were up +8.5% YoY and SFA lot deliveries were up +8.4% YoY.
D.R. Horton continues to dominate starts and new home sales by a huge margin; however, new home closings for five of the 10 top Atlanta builders declined during Q1 (D.R. Horton among them, -10.6% decline in Q1). These fluctuations are likely less about waning demand and more about low lot inventory, extensive backlogs and a slowdown in construction, as well as home completions during Q4 due to the holidays (seasonality has creeped back in after taking a few years off).
Download the Atlanta Housing Market Report
The 1Q2022 National Housing Market and Atlanta Housing Market Reports are now available to view/download on the St. Bourke website: https://www.stbourke.com/market-reports.
St. Bourke is an asset management and property development company primarily focused on residential communities and commercial assets. Offering a full suite of placemaking services ranging from acquisition through detailed design and development to ongoing management, St. Bourke creates thriving communities and drives significant value for its clients, partners and community stakeholders. Since its inception in 2015, St. Bourke has helped a variety of both private and institutional clients achieve their project goals. With more than 90 active projects across 20 U.S. markets, the St. Bourke portfolio consists of more than 12,000 acres of land and 25,000 residential lots. For more information on how to work with St. Bourke from the ground up, call 678-853-2530 or visit www.StBourke.com.
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