Atlanta continues to add residents and jobs, but producing enough new homes at prices buyers can afford remains a significant challenge.
That was a central theme of a recent economic and housing outlook presented by Robert Dietz, Ph.D., chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), to the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association on Sept. 16, 2026. Dietz examined the national economy, interest rates, housing affordability, construction costs and the outlook for homebuilding, with several data points highlighting conditions in metro Atlanta.
Housing Shortage Remains a Supply-Side Problem
NAHB estimates the nation currently has a 1.2 million-home housing deficit, although Dietz projects that shortage will narrow and close by 2030.
Dietz attributed the long-term housing deficit to what NAHB calls the “5 Ls”: labor, lots, lending, lumber/materials and legal/regulatory costs. Because those issues are interconnected, he emphasized that no single, scalable solution exists to increase the nation’s housing supply.
For homebuyers, the result is a market in which affordability remains under pressure even as builders adjust their products and pricing. Nationally, the median price of a new home has fallen nearly 14% since fall 2022.
Mortgage Rates Expected to Remain Above 6%
Financing remains another hurdle. Dietz’s forecast shows 30-year fixed mortgage rates remaining above 6%, with inflation pressures keeping rates in their current range.
The broader economy is expected to grow, but at a slower pace than its long-term historical average. NAHB forecasts annual economic growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 2027, followed by 1.7% in 2028. The presentation put the risk of recession at 35%.
Atlanta Continues to Add People and Jobs
Despite affordability challenges, metro Atlanta still has important demand drivers.
The Atlanta MSA reached approximately 6.4 million residents in 2025 and grew 1% from 2024 to 2025, compared with 0.9% for Georgia and 0.5% nationally. Over the longer period from 2010 to 2020, metro Atlanta’s population grew 15.2%.
Employment has also surpassed pre-pandemic levels. As of July 2026, Atlanta MSA payroll employment stood at 107% of its February 2020 level, while Georgia was at 106% and the U.S. at 104%.
Home values reflect that growth as well as the limited supply environment. Existing-home prices in the Atlanta MSA have increased 64% since COVID, compared with 67% statewide and 58% nationally.
Atlanta Homebuilding Slows
While Atlanta continues to grow, new-home production has moved in the opposite direction.
Single-family building permits in the Atlanta MSA declined 14% in 2025 and were another 5% lower year to date through July 2026. Georgia permits declined 8% in 2025 and were 3% lower year to date through July.
Atlanta nevertheless remains one of the country’s largest homebuilding markets. Through July 2026, the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell MSA ranked among the 10 largest single-family markets with 13,054 permits, down 5% from the same period in 2025.
Nationally, NAHB forecasts 904,000 single-family housing starts in 2026, a 4% decline from 2025. Starts are projected to remain essentially flat at 901,000 in 2027 before increasing 1% to 911,000 in 2028.
Regulatory Costs Add $131,734 to New Home Prices
One of the presentation’s most striking affordability statistics involved the cost of regulation.
NAHB estimates that regulations now account for $131,734, or 26.4%, of the price of a new home. That represents a 40% increase in regulatory costs from 2021 to 2026.
The total includes $46,795 incurred during development and $84,939 during construction. Costs range from zoning applications, compliance and required studies to land-use requirements, fees, building-code changes, architectural design standards and delays.
Materials are creating additional pressure. Residential construction input costs were up approximately 8% year over year in the presentation, while aluminum prices were reaching new peaks and copper prices had climbed above $6. Lumber, by comparison, has remained relatively stable since 2023, although prices were 9.3% higher year over year in August 2026.
Labor Remains Another Constraint
The construction labor shortage has not disappeared. There were 326,000 open construction positions in July 2026, despite a net gain of 324,500 residential construction jobs since January 2020.
NAHB’s data also illustrates the construction industry’s reliance on immigrant labor. In several trades, immigrants account for roughly half or more of the workforce, including plasterers and stucco masons, drywall and ceiling installers, roofers and painters.
More Housing Supply Is Key to Affordability
Taken together, Dietz’s presentation points to a housing market in which demand has not disappeared, but the ability to produce homes buyers can afford remains constrained.
Atlanta continues to grow, employment remains above pre-pandemic levels and the nation still faces a significant housing shortage. At the same time, mortgage rates remain elevated, construction costs are rising and regulatory expenses represent more than one-quarter of the cost of a new home.
NAHB’s proposed solutions focus heavily on the supply side, including reducing excessive regulation, addressing skilled labor shortages, improving building material supply chains, reforming local zoning, alleviating permitting roadblocks, reducing impact fees and making development financing more accessible.
For metro Atlanta, the numbers underscore the challenge ahead: the region continues to attract people and jobs, but meeting that growth with sufficient housing will require finding ways to build more homes at attainable price points.
