Atlanta Housing Market – Increased sales, limited lot supply, Gwinnett is HOT!

St. Bourke, an Atlanta-based asset management and property development company, gives a snapshot of the Atlanta housing market at the end of Q2. Economic indicators remain positive; however, home affordability has weakened against inflation, rising interest rates and the threat of recession. Demand is still present, and inventory is historically low.

“High home price and increasing interest rates stifled demand in Q2, which positively impacted inventory and home supply in Atlanta,” St. Bourke President Ben Simpson said. “Available inventory at the end of Q2 reached 1.6 months of supply, still far short of Atlanta’s 6-month average during normal times.”

Highlights from the Atlanta report:

• Active listings (homes available for sale) increased +63.7% during Q2 and are now at the highest level since Nov 2020. That said, Atlanta still has historically low inventory.
• Attached and detached housing starts slipped on both a quarterly and annual basis. Home builders want to avoid having finished homes they might not be able to sell. (The Great Recession is still top of mind for many builders.)
• Over the last 12 months, starts of new homes below $300,000 dropped -61.1% while starts of new homes above $400,000 shot up by +46.3%.
• Total lot deliveries are up +8.5% YoY, led by a +19.2% increase in attached lot deliveries. At present there are 37,400 lots in active development.
• Vacant developed lot (VDL) inventory is down YoY across the board, but dip in starts has led to modestly improved supply levels.
• Gwinnett County is still leading all Metro counties in terms of starts, closings, and lot deliveries. Lot production increased +56.5% over last 12 months in Gwinnett.
• Of the top 10 most active communities (in terms of annual starts), none of them have more than a one-year supply of VDLs.
  • Six of these communities are located more than 30 miles from the urban core.
  • Two of the four communities within the urban core are infill townhome projects, and both are already sold out.
• D.R. Horton continues to be most active builder in Atlanta MSA (in terms of closings); +11.1% increase in closings during Q2.
  • Starlight Homes/Ashton Woods, Dan Ryan Builders, and Meritage ramped up sales significantly during Q2.

“Of interest, since the beginning of 2022, 251 communities have sold out and only 148 new ones have been started. So, essentially, there are 103 fewer communities selling new homes today than there were six months ago,” said Simpson. “This stat really reinforces how tight the housing market is in terms of inventory and why we project that it will remain low for the foreseeable future.”

Other Market Insight.

“On the surface, the apparent pullback in Atlanta’s market is discouraging, but we are witnessing the market recalibrate in real time. The significant imbalance between supply and demand since mid-2020 has priced 60 – 70% of Atlanta households out of the market,” said Katie Fidler, Director – Research and Communications, St. Bourke. “What’s most important to remember is that demand is not gone. People, especially Millennials, still want to buy homes in Atlanta, many just can’t afford them anymore, so they’ve paused home purchases until the market is less frenzied and chaotic.”

The 2022 Q2 National Housing Market and Atlanta Housing Market Reports are now available to view/download on the St. Bourke website – https://www.stbourke.com/market-reports.

St. Bourke is an asset management and property development company primarily focused on residential communities and commercial assets. Offering a full suite of placemaking services ranging from acquisition through detailed design and development to ongoing management, St. Bourke creates thriving communities and drives significant value for its clients, partners and community stakeholders. Since its inception in 2015, St. Bourke has helped a variety of both private and institutional clients achieve their project goals. With more than 90 active projects across 20 U.S. markets, the St. Bourke portfolio consists of more than 12,000 acres of land and 25,000 residential lots. For more information on how to work with St. Bourke from the ground up, call 678-853-2530 or visit www.StBourke.com.

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